We are all familiar with the occasional case of “the Mondays.” However, few people today experience a Monday like a mid-20th century bank teller. On a normal Monday in 1969, it was common to see a line of 40-50 people outside the bank at the start of the work day. These circumstances changed with the introduction of the ATM. The ATM was developed to perform the same transactions between individual and teller — without the long lines and at users’ personal convenience. Consequently, traveling without money, and also “anytime money,” became popular. It also presented a textbook example of a machine intended to replace human labor. So, is it safe to assume that with the introduction of the ATM, bank employment plummeted? Nope.
Today, there are more than 400,000 ATMs in the U.S. But from 1970 to 2010, the number of bank tellers in the U.S. increased from around 300,000 to just under 600,000, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Although the average number of tellers per branch fell with the implementation of ATMs, opening and operating branch offices became cheaper; so banks opened more branches, and more teller occupations emerged. ATMs also needed maintenance that required new skillsets and, likewise, new careers. Make note of that thought: The integration of automation altered the way employees worked and the skills required to work.
The ATM integration scenario is one of numerous examples which opposes the mis-branded concept that “automation will take our jobs.” The picturesque image of the “Age of Robots” was implanted in our minds well before The Jetsons showcased Rosie the Robot or Star Wars became a sensation. Somewhere along the line, however, the idea of these machines serving us morphed into the fear of them devouring our jobs. This is an uncanny myth. Outsourcing human labor to machines is not new after all; it is the prevalent principle of the past 200 years of economics. From the printing press to the automobile to the ATM, as vast numbers of jobs have been exhausted, others have been devised, chiefly for newly skilled setup, repair and maintenance — just like the ATM. Repeatedly, we have not been great at foreseeing potential occupations.
Andrew McAfee, a researcher at MIT, once said, “If I had to do it over again, I would put more emphasis on the way technology leads to structural changes in the economy, and less on ‘jobs, jobs, jobs.’ The central phenomenon is not net job loss. It’s the shift in the kinds of jobs that are available.” What jobs are made available, McAfee? Assuredly, automated robots will consume work with predictable, repeatable patterns. However, there are avenues where humans possess value over a machine. Critical and persuasive thinking, as well as social, emotional and creative capabilities, are difficult to automate. Automated tooling cannot persuade a manager to run a business unit in a different way, provide leadership for a task at hand or design a new strategy with a different workforce in mind. Relieving a worker of repetitive functions allows him or her to apply expertise and interact with others. These “soft skills” can offer originality and initiative, which in the foreseeable future can be an increased measurement of employment value.
The ATM example is just one brick cemented in the path to increased automation, and this isn’t just my theory. The World Economic Forum (WEF) report, “The Future of Jobs 2018,” proclaimed that by 2022 automation could contribute to the replacement of 75 million jobs, but could simultaneously create 133 million new jobs. That’s 58 million new jobs generated within four years. This WEF report was based on “a survey of human resources officers, strategy executives and CEOs from more than 300 global companies in a wide range of over 20 developed and emerging economies that represent some 70 percent of the global economy,” thus confirming its credibility.
In the grand scheme of things, it is worth mentioning for ease of mind that, of the 271 occupations listed on the 1950 census, only one — elevator operator — had been rendered obsolete by automation by 2010. So, the next time you swipe your debit card outside your local bank or you have a case of the Mondays, remember that automation is just around the corner to make your Monday less ... Monday-ish.
For more information, contact Terry Gromes Jr. at tgromesjr@terydon.com.