When thinking about the "refinery of the future," what first comes to mind? Is it a refinery run similarly to something from a science fiction movie?
According to Honeywell UOP President Bryan Glover, the refinery of the future won't be some sort of technology or software configuration. Instead, it will be a strategy unique to each refinery.
"It's a capital investment strategy that captures growth by providing the flexibility to profit from changing markets and ensure competitiveness," Glover explained in a recent virtual session during the 2021 AFPM Annual Meeting.
"With the refinery of the future, there will be a fundamental change in the manner and quality of services provided through refiners and petrochemical companies," he added.
Of late, many refineries have invested in modernizing and expanding existing sites.
"They're taking one of three routes," Glover said.
According to Glover, the first route is integrating refining with petrochemicals as part of a planned evolution capital strategy, which itself is the refinery of the future. Refiners are taking this route because petrochemicals are the fastest-growing category industry-wide and account for about one-third of all capital investments.
"They're [integrating with petrochemicals] because over the next 30 years, population growth and rising GDP will drive 50-percent growth in petrochemical demand," Glover said.
However, the second path some refiners are taking is converting to renewable energy. These refiners anticipate greater environmental regulations and government policies. Glover noted that in 2020, despite the drop in fuel demand, overall interest rose in making diesel and jet fuel from renewable sources.
He emphasized that renewable fuels will not completely displace conventional fuels, which opens the third route for refiners: remaining in crude-based oil production.
"These refiners are investing in advanced technologies to produce the most valuable fuels at the lowest cost with the least waste," he said. "They can do this because we've made more improvements in molecule management in just the past five years than we've made in the previous 20."
In the refinery of the future, refiners will be digitally connected and equipped to continuously analyze their performance data to improve optimization, energy consumption, water use and waste elimination. This digital connection and ease of analysis will enable plants to operate closer to their peak performance capabilities while maintaining higher on-stream reliability. In turn, Glover explained, this will give refinery operators proactive information to address experience gaps caused by operator attrition.
Laura Leonard, vice president and general manager of Honeywell UOP Process Technologies, said the refinery of the future has been a growing "intense interest" in recent years, but became a hot topic in 2020 due to the pandemic. Glover agreed, adding that the economic situation brought on by COVID-19 stimulated changes in the industry that were already underway, forcing customers to decide how to maintain long-term growth and more efficiently manage their feedstocks.
Leonard reiterated the refinery of the future is not a technology, but rather a "philosophy of capital investment."
"[The refinery of the future] provides the greatest flexibility to pivot profitably to new product slates at stages well into the future," she explained. According to Leonard, a large benefit of this flexibility is that refiners won't have to know what those product slates will be for years to be able to profit.
The refinery of the future will incentivize technology providers to focus solely on their customers' successes, Glover noted. He added that more customers are transitioning to results-based business arrangements so, for example, they pay for what a catalyst does instead of paying for the catalyst.
"We do well only when our customers do well," he emphasized.
Going forward, Glover and Leonard expressed anticipation for the future and optimism for the industry's recovery and the refinery of the future.
"We're optimistic about 2021," Glover said.
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