Small businesses have endured a rough few years when it comes to buying technology.
First came tariffs and trade disputes in 2018 that affected pricing and availability for PCs and networking gear. Following this were the pandemic-driven shortages that made laptops, servers and networking equipment expensive or hard to find. And now, just as supply chains appeared to stabilize, another pressure point has emerged: a global shortage of silicon wafers, the foundational material used to manufacture computer chips.
Unlike earlier crises caused by factory shutdowns or logistics breakdowns, the 2025 wafer shortage is more subtle and potentially longer-lasting. Demand for advanced computing, especially AI-related infrastructure, has surged. At the same time, chip manufacturers and material suppliers are concentrating investment on more profitable high-end production, leaving less capacity for the components that power everyday business technology. For example, Micron Technology, a pillar of the computing industry since the late ‘70s, has announced it is shuttering its Crucial sub-brand in early 2026. Crucial sold Micron products in the channel and directly to endusers, and Micron is ending the entire brand and focusing on production exclusively for large enterprise and AI customers. Micron is the first, but it will not be the last.
Looking ahead at 2026 and beyond
The most visible impact heading into 2026 is likely to be cost and timing. IT equipment refreshes for things like workstations, laptops and servers may come with longer lead times or higher prices than expected. Vendors may push alternative models, discontinue familiar product lines or simply increase the price. This effect will be global, affecting both smaller organizations and large enterprises alike, and can strain budgets and delay planned upgrades.
The pressure is especially acute for organizations that postponed upgrades to aging Windows 10 systems. Some businesses elected to try and stretch the lifetime of their fleet of Windows 10 equipment and to replace or upgrade them later. Unfortunately, those upgrades are colliding with a period of rising hardware prices and tighter availability. Companies that delayed refresh cycles, hoping to "get one more year" out of older PCs, may now face higher costs, fewer model choices and compressed timelines, turning what was once a routine upgrade into a larger-than-expected capital expense.
The outlook for this shortage suggests things will get worse before they get better. New manufacturing capacity is being built, but it takes years to fully come online. Meanwhile, large cloud providers and enterprise customers often receive priority access to scarce components, leaving small and mid-sized buyers more exposed to market swings. Aftermarket pricing for things like memory and storage is already being affected, but many parts acquisitions for large manufacturers come with long contractual lead times, and so the effect of rising silicon costs is delayed until the next contract comes along. This year's $800 laptop or phone could be replaced by a comparable model costing 50% more within the next product cycle.
What can small businesses do
First, plan to spend more on IT in 2026 than in 2025. If major hardware purchases can be delayed until 2027, that may reduce exposure, though the exact timing of recovery remains uncertain. In some cases, renting equipment or shifting workloads to cloud-hosted resources may provide more predictable costs, as service providers are better positioned to absorb the cost volatility in the supply chain.
The lesson from the last several supply crunches is clear: technology availability cannot be taken for granted. For small businesses in 2026, the silicon wafer shortage is less about the science of chips and more about timing, budgeting and resilience. Those who plan early and modernize deliberately will be far better positioned than those forced to upgrade under pressure.
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