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Lockdowns and turnarounds are significant events in the life of any organization that must be planned and closely monitored. One such factor is determining how far in advance a turnaround's scope should be locked down.
According to Hardy Kemp, director of capital projects, construction and turnarounds for Flint Hills Resources, 12 months is "pretty standard." Kemp also noted the length of time in advance can depend on the size of the turnaround and what part of the plant or process is being shut down.
"As long as you have the opportunity to get everything you need and get your catalyst there in time without expediting, then you can definitely shorten things up," he said.
Some refiners lock the scope under six months, but Hardy considers that brief of a period to be "very, very frustrating on all fronts."
"It's too short of a time," Hardy explained during a panel discussion at the 2020 AFPM Summit. "There are multiple advantages to having work locked in early. Planning is the one thing that can influence or definitely help how well you can execute an event. If you don't lock the scope in until six months out, and you need to find solutions to a problem, your alternatives shrink because of the amount of time you have to respond."
Locking in the scope in a capital project only six months prior to the event jeopardizes the possibility of a productive challenge session, Hardy said.
"It also limits the possibility of good alternative selection, good engineering and design, and getting your materials delivered on time for the event," Hardy said. "When you rush stuff like that, you put a lot of things at risk. You take away time that you should be spending on planning. You've got to allow yourself a little bit more time on the front end and for selecting how you're going to address some of the issues. When you rush, you risk."
Gerard Celestine, maintenance excellence manager for Motiva Enterprises, stressed the importance of avoiding procrastinating the development of a turnaround's scope.
"It's good to start early and stay engaged. Don't wait until the event is coming. Develop your scope while you're already in one event, preparing that one and then going on to the next," he said. "Otherwise, you're getting into the scope with your folks when funds get changed, things happen and all of a sudden you lose your intent."
Celestine also recommended that turnaround planners and owners should consistently anticipate change, like budget inflections and workforce changes that might impact the turnaround schedule's resilience.
"The world is ever-changing," Celestine said. "Your folks are constantly moving and changing, so you tend to get folks who don't have the right experience or knowledge. Make sure you retain that historical data."
Meeting the challenge
Kemp explained that, while there is a formal challenge process facilitated by the turnaround group, ownership of the turnaround is at the business team's level.
"The business team is looking at that entire asset and unit and how that plays within our plot, and what value it brings to our overall complex," Kemp said. "That determines your investment strategy."
Units of high value that prefer to avoid being shut down for long periods may resort to a "replace versus repair" approach, he added.
"Spend less, and maybe take a little bit longer to repair those types of things," Kemp said. "That's what drives some of the scope decisions and that's what's evaluated at the challenge."
At the end of the scope challenge, the results are analyzed to determine the asset's investment strategy.
"How is that tied to my annualized maintenance?" Hardy asked. "Then, we agree on the lock scope with the same level of scrutiny, once it's been locked."
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