Low-carbon hydrogen is rapidly emerging as a crucial solution to support a cleaner energy future. Its greatest potential lies in decarbonizing hard-to-abate sectors, including iron and steel production, chemical manufacturing, and long-haul transport.
- Market Growth & Role: The global blue hydrogen market is projected to reach US$52 billion by 2036 (22% CAGR). It serves as a vital "bridge" to a clean energy future, using carbon capture (CCUS) to decarbonize hard-to-abate sectors like steel and chemicals while green hydrogen scales up.
- Key Technologies: While Steam Methane Reforming (SMR) is the current standard, Autothermal Reforming (ATR) is emerging for its higher efficiency. Additionally, Turquoise Hydrogen (methane pyrolysis) is gaining interest because it produces solid carbon instead of CO2 gas, eliminating the need for underground storage.
- Policy vs. Reality: Over 60 governments (led by the US, Canada, and the EU) are providing tax credits and subsidies to spur growth. However, high production costs and uncertain demand have led to recent delays or cancellations of major projects by industry giants like ExxonMobil and BP.
With less than 1% of global hydrogen supply currently low-carbon, blue hydrogen serves as a critical transitional solution to scale production and move toward a hydrogen-based economy. According to IDTechEx’s latest report, “Blue Hydrogen Production and Markets 2026-2036: Technologies, Forecasts, Players”, the global blue hydrogen market is projected to reach US$52 billion by 2036, growing at a CAGR of 22%.
What is blue hydrogen and turquoise hydrogen?
Blue hydrogen is produced from fossil fuels using conventional methods combined with carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) technologies. Conventional hydrogen production, also known as grey or black hydrogen, releases CO2 directly into the atmosphere. In contrast, blue hydrogen captures most of the CO2, storing it or utilizing it for industrial use, significantly reducing its carbon footprint.
Blue hydrogen plays a critical transitional role in the shift toward a low-carbon hydrogen economy. While green hydrogen, produced via water electrolysis with minimal emissions, is the ideal long-term solution, high electrolyzer costs and growing demand for renewable electricity from various sectors make an immediate transition challenging. Blue hydrogen bridges this gap by using established production infrastructure and mature CCUS technologies to reduce emissions, enabling industries to decarbonize gradually while supporting the scaling of a hydrogen economy.
Turquoise hydrogen is another low-carbon hydrogen form, produced through methane pyrolysis. Unlike blue hydrogen, this process does not require CO2 capture. Instead, it generates solid carbon as a by-product, which can be used across industries such as tire manufacturing or energy storage materials. Since turquoise hydrogen also uses natural gas as a feedstock and delivers low-carbon hydrogen, it is an important complement to blue hydrogen in the energy transition.
Production technologies of blue hydrogen
Blue hydrogen can be produced through several pathways. Conventional methods include steam methane reforming (SMR), autothermal reforming (ATR), partial oxidation (POX), and coal gasification (CG). SMR with CCUS is the incumbent technology in current blue hydrogen production, while ATR with CCUS is emerging as a promising alternative due to its high efficiency and high carbon capture rate.
Unlike conventional hydrogen production methods, methane pyrolysis is an emerging technology that is rapidly gaining attention, primarily driven by SME developments.
Other pathways include biomass-based hydrogen production and novel blue hydrogen technologies such as eSMR. Although these processes currently represent a small share of the market, they are expected to attract growing interest in the coming years as low-carbon hydrogen demand increases.
Blue hydrogen production technologies covered in IDTechEx’s “Blue Hydrogen Production and Markets 2026-2036: Technologies, Forecasts, Players” report. Source: IDTechEx.
Global policies and market developments in blue hydrogen
Over 60 governments worldwide have included hydrogen in their energy transition strategies, with leading regions such as the United States, Canada, and the Netherlands implementing different mechanisms to support low-carbon hydrogen development. In the US, growth is supported by 45V clean hydrogen and 45Q CCUS tax credits, with the recent One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) further promoting blue hydrogen by incentivizing point-source CO₂ capture for industrial applications such as enhanced oil recovery (EOR). In the EU, policies including the EU ETS, CCS Directive, and SDE++ (specifically in the Netherlands) provide additional support.
However, the hydrogen industry is currently experiencing slow growth and mixed political signals in certain regions. Several large-scale projects have been delayed, paused, or cancelled due to market uncertainties, primarily driven by high levelized costs of hydrogen (LCOH) and weak offtake demand. Notable examples include ExxonMobil’s Baytown blue hydrogen complex in Texas and BP’s Teesside facility in the UK, highlighting challenges that are slowing overall market expansion.
IDTechEx’s report, “Blue Hydrogen Production and Markets 2026-2036: Technologies, Forecasts, Players”, offers a comprehensive analysis of the latest blue hydrogen market trends, regulatory developments, major projects, and key technology suppliers, along with a dedicated section on turquoise hydrogen, including technology benchmarking, key players, and case studies.
What is the outlook for blue hydrogen market?
The main drivers of the blue hydrogen market are strong regulatory support for decarbonization, the maturation of CCUS technologies, and the growing adoption of hydrogen across end-use applications. However, challenges such as slow growth in the broader hydrogen market and regulatory uncertainties in certain regions cannot be overlooked. Despite these challenges, IDTechEx expects the blue hydrogen market to continue expanding, with technological advancements and large-scale projects worth monitoring.
