Refiners will spend billions more to expand their processing capacity if the U.S. crude oil export ban remains in place than they will if it is lifted, according to a new study by Turner, Mason and Co.
Investments in new stabilizers, splitters and hydroskimming refineries could reach $11 billion by 2025 as refiners work to absorb a 7.2-million-barrel-per-day increase in domestic oil production over 2013 levels. If the ban on oil exports is lifted, refiners will only need to process an extra 800,000 barrels per day of domestic crude, requiring an investment of $2.3 billion. In this scenario, costly hydroskimming refineries are not built because the ability to export crude oil keeps the WTI price too high to justify those investments.
The $11 billion forecast in the "no exports" scenario is in addition to refinery expansion and debottlenecking plans that have already been announced.
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