EIA recently implemented a new model for forecasting crude oil and natural gas production from the U.S. Federal Offshore Gulf of Mexico (GOM) in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO).
In the latest outlook, EIA forecasts that GOM production will remain relatively flat with new fields offsetting the natural production declines from existing fields.
EIA forecasts that 1.8 million barrels per day (b/d) of crude oil will be produced in the GOM in 2024 and 1.9 million b/d in 2025, compared with 1.9 million b/d in 2023. EIA expects GOM natural gas production to average 1.8 billion cubic feet a day (Bcf/d) in both 2024 and 2025, compared with 2.0 Bcf/d in 2023.
Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), September 2024
Data values: U.S. Petroleum and Other Liquids Supply, Consumption, and Inventories and U.S. Natural Gas Supply, Consumption, and Inventories
At these volumes, the GOM would contribute about 14% of U.S. oil production and 2% of U.S. marketed natural gas production.
EIA expects 12 new fields to start production in the GOM during 2024 and 2025, without which we would expect GOM production to decline. Seven of these fields will be developed using subsea tiebacks, or underwater extensions from existing Floating Production Units (FPUs) at the surface. EIA expects four new FPUs, which would produce crude oil and natural gas from five more fields. EIA expects that fields that have already started in 2024 will contribute 22,000 b/d of crude oil production in 2024, and fields that will start production in 2024 or 2025 will contribute 231,000 b/d on average in 2025 as additional production comes online and ramps up.
