As tensions flare between Russia and the Ukraine, questions have arisen as to who might fill the void in the event of Russian energy delivery disruptions to Europe. For the U.S., it’s a long-term issue, given the fact that the nation is still a few years away from exporting large amounts of LNG to non-free-trade agreement countries. In addition, heightened calls for a removal of the ban on crude oil exports from the U.S. may not gain significant traction until after the 2014 midterm elections at the earliest.
A Monday Reuters piece examined to what degree the Ukraine crisis bolsters the argument of those who support widespread U.S. energy exports. Energy experts quoted in the piece say that Western European countries such as Germany and Austria could reduce their dependence on Russian natural gas by buying from the U.S. Countries in Eastern and Southern Europe, however, might not be able to justify the likely exorbitant costs of transporting LNG all the way from North America. The piece also points out that a lot of the 8.5 billion cubic feet per day of LNG that has been approved by the Department of Energy for export is already tied up in contracts with Asian buyers. As for oil, much of what the U.S. has available for potential export is light crude produced in the Bakken shale. The Reuters piece notes that oil produced in Russia is of the heavy variety. One wonders if Canada could set its sights on the European market for heavy oil if the Obama Administration denies TransCanada’s request to build a northern leg of the Keystone XL pipeline.
Despite the skepticism of some experts, others such as former State Department official Richard Haas are convinced Russia's continued aggression could encourage more oil and gas exports from the U.S. The issue is certain to get more attention from policymakers and energy observers in the weeks to come. Lawmakers pushing legislation designed to speed up the pace of LNG export approvals have used the crisis to drum up support for their bills. Via the Hill, House Speaker John Boehner said on Wednesday the administration could help weaken Russia’s influence by speeding up the “achingly slow” export approval process. (Ironically, groups who oppose LNG exports have decried the quickening pace of approvals over the past 14 months, during which five have been granted.)
Whatever the outcome, it seems as though an unexpected external event could potentially tip the balance of one of America’s biggest energy quandaries.
