EIA has revised the forecast for 2025 average U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot prices upward following a cold end to February, and has revised the forecast for the Brent crude oil spot price, expecting it to fall in late 2025.
Here are some highlights from EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook:
Natural gas consumption and inventories: Cold weather during January and February led to increased natural gas consumption and large natural gas withdrawals from inventories. EIA now expects natural gas inventories to fall below 1.7 trillion cubic feet at the end of March, which is 10% below the previous five-year average and 6% less natural gas in storage for that time of year than we had expected last month.
EIA revises forecasts for U.S. natural gas prices
Natural gas prices: EIA expects higher natural gas consumption and lower natural gas inventories to lead to higher natural gas prices through 2026. EIA expects the Henry Hub spot price to average around $4.20 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2025 (11% higher than last month’s forecast) and near $4.50/MMBtu in 2026 (8% higher than last month’s forecast).
Crude oil prices: EIA expects the Brent crude oil spot price to rise from its current price near $70 per barrel to about $75 per barrel in the third quarter of this year. However, EIA forecasts oil inventories to build and prices to decrease in late-2025 and through 2026 as OPEC+ unwinds production cuts and non-OPEC oil production grows.
Electricity consumption: EIA expects a 3% increase in total U.S. electricity sales (a proxy for consumption) in 2025, led by strong growth in the residential and commercial sectors. Residential-sector growth is mostly related to cold weather during January and February that increased electricity consumption for space heating. Commercial-sector growth is being driven by expanding data centers.
