The global COVID-19 pandemic has shifted, and continues to shift, human behavior in ways that would have been difficult to imagine in 2019.
In a new white paper, Louisiana State University's Center for Energy Studies Assistant Professor Cody Nehiba examines the transportation sector to provide valuable insights into the economic and social disruption caused by the pandemic, how we have adjusted the way we live and work, and what changes may become permanent. He offers an overview of the dramatic effects of the pandemic on the movement of people and goods, with a focus on Louisiana.
Nehiba finds that as of August 2021, vehicle miles traveled (VMT), which fell almost 40% in April 2020 relative to April 2019, has largely recovered. Mileage remains lower than pre-pandemic levels and, though still increasing, may not reach those levels in the near future. While mileage is down from long-run trends, the relatively high level of VMT over the summer of 2021 compared to previous months increased fuel demand and prices. Interestingly, Nehiba reports, the pandemic may have had a long-run effect on fuel consumption, as Americans have begun shifting automobile purchases from light trucks to more fuel efficient automobiles.
Data show that, like vehicle travel, air transportation and tourism numbers have been increasing, but remain persistently lower than prior to the pandemic. The rapid increase in air passengers over the summer of 2021 posed challenges for the industry, as flight delays and cancellations propagated throughout the system due in part to employee shortages and work hour restrictions. And finally, freight services appear to have weathered the pandemic with relatively minor disruption relative to other areas of the transportation sector.
Will these trends continue? As the pandemic has made abundantly clear, the future can be hard to predict.
“With the emergence of virus variants and increasing infection rates, particularly in Louisiana where a mask mandate was recently reinstated, the recent increases in travel may once again fall,” Nehiba said. Louisiana, which has one of the lowest vaccination rates in the country, may become a cautionary example of the dangers of viral mutations in unvaccinated populations.
