The concept of hitting the goal of "Net Zero by 2050" has been a call to action for climate activism for years and has become a guiding principle in determining investment protocols in the social, corporate and governance worlds.
"Net zero" was mentioned in more than 6,000 filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in 2022 and countless other times by publicly traded corporations and investor groups in statements and on their websites. The SEC said its proposed climate disclosure rule will help investors "evaluate the progress in meeting net-zero commitments and assessing any associated risks."
In a recent column from Steve Milloy, a senior fellow with the Energy and Environment Legal Institute, the Wall Street Journal noted that "net zero" and its corollary, the "energy transition," are "talked about so often and so loosely that many take them for granted as worthy goals that could be accomplished with greater buy-in from political and business leaders."
Two new energy reports show the U.S. is burdening and dismantling its grid to achieve an impossible goal, Milloy said.
A September report from the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), the research arm of the U.S. electric utility industry, titled "Net-Zero 2050: U.S. Economy-Wide Deep Decarbonization Scenario Analysis," said that attaining "Net Zero by 2050" will be a near-impossibility for the utility industry. According to the report, "This study shows that clean electricity plus direct electrification and efficiency are not sufficient by themselves to achieve net-zero economy-wide emissions."
In other words, Milloy said, "no amount of wind turbines, solar panels, hydropower, nuclear power, battery power, electrification of fossil-fuel technologies or energy-efficiency technologies will get us to net zero by 2050."
The EPRI report said that even to reach a level of "deep carbonization" - which is not at the level of "Net Zero by 2050" - would require "a broad portfolio of options that includes low-carbon fuels and carbon removal technologies will be required." The report goes on to say that: "This study does not include a detailed assessment of factors such as supply chain constraints [and] operational reliability and resiliency" of a net-zero electricity grid.
Another report recently released titled "2022 Long-Term Reliability Assessment" is from the North American Electric Reliability Corp. (NERC), a government-certified, grid-reliability and standard-setting group. According to NERC, removing fossil- fuel plants from the electric supply grid too quickly to meet the increasing demand for electricity will lead to continuing blackouts and grid failures across the country.
The NERC report concluded that energy capacity and reliability should be a top priority for stakeholders of resource and system planning communities. Planning and operating the grid must increasingly account for different characteristics and performance in electricity resources as the energy transition continues, the report stated.
General actions for industry and policymakers to address the reliability risks include:
- Manage the pace of generator retirements until solutions are in place that can continue to meet energy needs and provide essential reliability services
- Include extreme weather scenarios in resource and system planning
- Address performance of inverter-based resources and grid integration issues
- Expand resource adequacy evaluations beyond reserve margins at peak times to include energy risks for all hours and seasons
- Mitigate the risks that arise from growing reliance on just-in-time fuel for electric generation and the interdependent natural gas and electric infrastructure
- Consider the impact that the electrification of transportation, space heating and other sectors may have on future electricity demand and infrastructure
In December 2022, overburdened systems in New York and California experienced widespread electric outages, and overtaxed utilities and several areas of the country saw periodic blackouts and calls from state and local leaders to preserve usage.
Milloy concluded his Wall Street column with a call to action that Congress should hold hearings on "net zero by 2050" goals before real disaster happens.
