Colorado State University’s hurricane forecast estimates the 2025 hurricane season will exceed the 1991–2020 average, with an estimate of 17 named storms, compared with a historical average of 14 storms.
Meteorologists expect 13–18 named storms, including 3–6 storms with direct impacts on the United States, during this year’s Atlantic hurricane season, according to reports from AccuWeather in April.
The potential for a stronger hurricane season suggests heightened risk for weather-related production outages in the U.S. oil industry, including potential refinery outages along the U.S. Gulf Coast. Last year, five hurricanes made landfall in the United States, shutting in some upstream crude oil and natural gas production temporarily and disrupting petroleum product supply chains in Florida.
Refining industry risks from 2025 hurricane season
Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Refinery Capacity Report
What is hurricane season?
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) National Hurricane Center defines the Atlantic hurricane season as running from June 1 through November 30. Generally, June is the month when the earliest named storms begin forming in the Atlantic Basin, and the most severe hurricanes usually form in August and early September. In the United States, hurricanes most often hit the Southeast (PADD 1C) and the U.S. Gulf Coast (PADD 3).
How do hurricanes affect petroleum refining?
The U.S. Gulf Coast accounts for 55% of total U.S. refining capacity, with the Texas Gulf Coast and Louisiana Gulf Coast refining regions combined accounting for 49% of total U.S. refinery capacity. These facilities risk flooding or power outages associated with major storms or hurricanes. Many refinery operators will evacuate nonessential personnel and temporarily stop production if they believe severe weather might injure employees or damage their facilities.
Refineries that sustain major damage or flooding may be taken offline for longer periods. In 2021, Phillips 66’s Alliance refinery in Belle Chase, Louisiana, permanently closed and was transitioned into a storage terminal following significant storm damage.
What determines the scale of a weather-related impact on markets?
A storm’s location is the main determining factor of its impact on petroleum markets, followed by the storm’s intensity. An intense storm that affects a region without refining capacity is unlikely to significantly affect overall U.S. refined petroleum supplies.
Hurricanes can affect local logistics, distribution, and consumption in any affected area. In regions facing an impending major hurricane or other emergency, consumer behavior can also lead to regionalized price increases, local supply shortfalls, panic-buying, and spikes in fuel demand for evacuation purposes.
Hurricanes can also disrupt supply chains for petroleum products. Fuel supplies in Florida are primarily shipped on barges from Gulf Coast refineries, such as those in Texas and Louisiana. Hurricanes and tropical storms can lead to disruptions in these transfers. Retail stations in other regions can also be affected by logistical disruptions or power outages, which occurred in 2012 during Hurricane Sandy.
How much refinery capacity is at risk from hurricanes?
The path of a single hurricane or major storm is unlikely to affect more than a single cluster of refineries along the Gulf Coast. However, because of the total volume of refining capacity in each region, more than 1.0 million barrels per day of capacity could be temporarily taken offline in anticipation of a major storm.
Hurricanes don’t often hinder refining operations in the mid-Atlantic (PADD 1B) region, although what is now the largest refinery on the East Coast—the Bayway refinery in New Jersey operated by Phillips 66—was affected by Hurricane Sandy in 2012. Similar incidents or storms that limit imports into New York Harbor also present a potential risk to U.S. petroleum supplies.
