Global energy demand will increase by 25% between 2014 and 2040 amid population growth and economic expansion, according to a new report by ExxonMobil. In its annual Outlook for Energy study, ExxonMobil said natural gas, nuclear energy and renewable energy would combine to meet 80% of the growth in energy demand. By 2040, natural gas, nuclear and renewables will make up almost a quarter of energy supplies — one-third of that will come from nuclear.
Oil will provide one third of the world’s energy and will remain the No. 1 source of fuel, followed by natural gas. North America — where the U.S. recently lifted its decades-old ban on crude oil exports — is on pace to become a net oil exporter by 2020, ExxonMobil said.
While global electricity demand is expected to increase by 65%, coal will be a less significant part of the energy mix. Coal’s share of global electricity will fall from 40% to 30% between 2014 and 2040. The move away from coal could be accelerated by recent power plant emissions rules passed in the U.S. and a December agreement by 186 nations to shift to low-carbon energy sources.
Meanwhile, ExxonMobil projects that energy-related carbon emissions will peak around 2030 and begin to decline thereafter. Emissions in OECD nations are projected to fall by 20% from 2014 to 2040.
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