According to the 2017 edition of the BP Energy Outlook, global demand for energy is expected to increase by 30 percent between 2015 and 2035, an average growth of 1.3 percent per year.
However, this growth in energy demand is significantly lower than the 3.4-percent-per-year rise expected in global gross domestic product, reflecting improved energy efficiency driven by technology improvements and environmental concerns.
The outlook looks at long-term energy trends and develops projections for world energy markets over the next two decades. The 2017 edition was launched in London by Spencer Dale, BP's group chief economist, and Bob Dudley, group chief executive.
"The global energy landscape is changing. Traditional centers of demand are being overtaken by fast-growing emerging markets. The energy mix is shifting, driven by technological improvements and environmental concerns. More than ever, our industry needs to adapt to meet those changing energy needs," Dudley said.
Oil demand will grow an average rate of 0.7 percent a year, although this is expected to slow gradually over the period. The transport sector will continue to consume most of the world's oil, with its share of global demand remaining close to 60 percent in 2035.
"The possibility that the most important source of growth in oil demand in the 2030s won't be to power cars or trucks or planes, but rather used as an input into other products such as plastics and fabrics, is quite a change from the past," said Dale.
Gas will grow more quickly than either oil or coal, with demand growing an average 1.6 percent a year. Its share of primary energy will overtake coal as the second-largest fuel source by 2035. Shale gas production accounts for two-thirds of the increase in gas supplies. LNG growth is expected to lead to a globally integrated gas market anchored by U.S. gas prices.
Renewables are projected to be the fastest-growing fuel, growing at an average rate of 7.6 percent per year. China is the largest source of growth for renewables over the next 20 years, adding more renewable power than Europe and the U.S. combined.
"The impact of electric cars, together with other aspects of the mobility revolution such as self-driving cars, car sharing, and ride pooling, is one of the key uncertainties surrounding the long-term outlook for oil," said Dale.
Gas continues to gain share from coal, helped by energy policies that encourage the shift in both industry and power generation.
The main growth will come from China, the Middle East, and the U.S. The outlook expects LNG supplies to grow rapidly to account for over half of traded gas by 2035. This increase is led by supplies from the U.S., Australia, and Africa. Around a third of this growth will occur over the next four years as a series of projects currently under development come on stream.
Carbon emissions are projected to grow at less than a third of the rate seen in the past 20 years -- an average of 0. 6 percent per year versus 2.1 percent per year -- reflecting gains in energy efficiency and the changing fuel mix. If achieved, it would be the slowest rate of emissions growth for any 20-year period since records began in 1965.