EIA forecasts strongest four-year growth in U.S. electricity demand since 2000, fueled by data centers
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) published its first energy-sector forecasts through 2027 in the January Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO).
EIA expects U.S. electricity use to grow by 1% this year and 3% in 2027.
This increase would mark the first time since 2007 that power demand has risen for four years in a row and the strongest four-year growth period since 2000. The driving factor behind this surge is increasing demand from large computing centers.
"U.S. energy production remains strong, and natural gas output is expected to grow to nearly 109 billion cubic feet per day this year," said Tristan Abbey, Administrator of the U.S. Energy Information Administration. "Natural gas supply is critical as we forecast that U.S. liquefied natural gas exports expand and electricity demand rises through 2027, driven largely by increasing demand from large computing facilities, including data centers."
Other key takeaways from the January STEO are below:
- Venezuela: EIA’s forecast assumes existing sanctions on Venezuela remain in place through 2027. Any change in sanctions or other U.S. government policy related to Venezuela that could result in more oil production than we assumed in this forecast would put additional downward pressure on oil prices.
- Global oil production: EIA expects global production of liquid fuels to outpace demand and increase inventories, driving the price of Brent crude oil down to average $56 per barrel in 2026, a 19% drop from 2025. EIA expects these lower prices ($52 per barrel for West Texas Intermediate) to reduce drilling activity, causing U.S. crude oil production to decline by less than 1% in 2026 (to 13.6 million barrels per day from a record high in 2025) and 2% in 2027.
- U.S. gasoline prices: EIA expects U.S. retail gasoline prices to decrease in 2026, due to lower crude oil costs, and to remain relatively flat next year. The forecast U.S. retail gasoline price averages around $2.90 per gallon (gal), a drop of nearly 20 cents/gal from 2025.
- Natural gas prices: EIA expects the benchmark Henry Hub price to stay mostly flat in 2026, averaging just under $3.50 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), before rising to $4.60/MMBtu in 2027. This increase is driven by growing demand for liquefied natural gas exports and higher natural gas consumption in the electric power sector, which is expected to outpace growth in natural gas production.
- Electricity generation: Solar power supplies the largest increase power generation, increasing by a forecast 21% in both 2026 and 2027 following the addition of almost 70 gigawatts of new capacity; natural gas generation is forecast to remain flat in 2026 before increasing by 1% in 2027, while coal-fired power generation is expected to fall by 9% in 2026 and remain flat in 2027.