Among many other wise maxims, President Abraham Lincoln is often credited with saying, "The most reliable way to predict the future is to create it."
Members of the petrochemical industry have embraced this sentiment as they look to what the future holds following a tumultuous 2020.
"From a trend perspective, when we talk to some of the analysts in our industry, we're looking at late 2021 or 2022 as to when we're expecting to see more of an uptick," said Denise Delaune, senior site operations director for Dow Chemical Co.'s St. Charles Operations in Louisiana. "It's still going to be pretty tight through the first half of 2021. We hope not, but certainly we would expect there are still going to be some headwinds going into next year. We see longer-term optimism once we get past this point."
Joining Delaune on a recent Louisiana Chemical Industry Alliance Region 3 plant managers panel, Louis Palmer, plant manager for Occidental Chemical Corp. (OxyChem), said he believes 2021 will be a year of transition.
"We believe we'll see slight improvements going into 2021, but nothing substantial," he said. "But that will prepare us for better years in 2022 and 2023. There are some strong headwinds we've got to fight, but we see 2021 as the transitional year."
Paul Nagy, head of the production site at Bayer Crop Science, said he expects his company to be on track in terms of projects and spending in 2021.
"There might be some unexpected pandemic- related things that come up as we see how the [rest] of 2020 progresses. We don't anticipate that at this point, but of course that's really hard to predict," he said. "Certainly, things like vaccines and an uptick around something like that is going to impact things."
Nagy added that Bayer Crop Science is still planning on the same kind of workload globally that it had anticipated before the pandemic hit.
"2022 looks pretty normal at this point in time," Nagy said.
'Weather the storm'
The panelists shared some words of advice for contractors as 2021 and 2022 approach. Nagy recommended contractors "try to be patient, and get poised and ready."
"Companies, in general, are being conservative. That's probably in the DNA of the company," he said. "With that in mind, you're going to expect that we're going to be a little bit slow to move forward. But I don't see something substantial that will change the way we do business together with our partners."
Nagy also urged contractors to "stay the course" with their company partners as everyone is trying to "figure out the best solution, and to allow that level of patience while things start to normalize."
Palmer shared that he believes OxyChem has "a wonderful relationship" with its contractors. "They provide excellent service to us," he said.
Palmer is confident "we've seen the worst" of the COVID-19 pandemic, but added that recovery would be a slow process. He recommended contractors "be patient, and do the things on their side, as we're having to do, to weather the storm."
More work will start to flow when the economy begins to rebound and projects get back on schedule, Palmer stated.
"I don't believe that will be tomorrow, but I don't believe we're currently at the rate we're going to be at a year from now," he said. "I think things will be better. And let us know what we can do to help."
Delaune lauded Dow's contract partners for "working very closely on management of COVID-19 and safety, and all those things in this unique environment."
"When we go through times when capital and other things are not really there, we really focus on internal operating discipline and getting stronger at some of the basics," she observed.
Delaune suggested that contractors continue to hone their skills and "up [their] game and those sorts of things, and let us know what you need until COVID-19 passes."
"It is an unusual time for all of us, so we're all learning," she concluded. "If you see things we don't see that would help us all work together better, then let's continue to keep that open dialogue."
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