In a report released September 30, 2020, the U.S. Energy Information Administration announced that energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions decreased in 2019 by 2.8%, or 150 million metric tons (MMmt) when compared with 2018. Changes in the electricity fuel mix were the most important factors, with coal-related CO2 emissions declining by 184 million metric tons (15%). This led to CO2 emissions declines in the residential and commercial sector of 99 MMmt because these sectors consume relatively large amounts of electricity. Compared to 2018, weather played a lesser role in the 2019 decrease because heating demand remained about the same as in 2018, while cooling requirements decreased by 5% compared with 2018.
This analysis examines economic trends and changes in fuel mix that influence energy-related CO2 emissions in the United States. The CO2 emissions in this report are the result of fossil fuel combustion or their use in the petrochemical and related industries.
In the short term, energy-related CO2 emissions are influenced by factors such as weather, fuel prices, and disruptions in electricity generation.
FUTURE IMPLICATIONS OF THE 2019 DECREASE IN U.S. CO2 EMISSIONS
The combinations of conditions in 2019 that lowered CO2 emissions in the United States relative to 2018 may not necessarily reflect future trends. The EIA products mentioned below contain the most recent forecasts for the short term (2020 and 2021) and projections for the longer term through 2050.
For EIA’s short-term forecast of U.S. CO2 emissions and their key drivers, see the Short‐Term Energy Outlook (STEO), with monthly forecasts through 2021. The STEO is the most appropriate source for EIA’s latest estimate for the effect of recent market developments and events on energy markets and related CO2 emissions.
EIA’s long-term projections are detailed in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO), with annual projections of domestic energy markets and CO2 emissions through 2050, and the International Energy Outlook (IEO), with annual projections of international energy consumption and CO2 emissions through 2050.
The analysis of energy‐related CO2 emissions in the United States presented here is based on data published in the Monthly Energy Review (MER) reports. Monthly U.S. energy‐related CO2 emissions are derived from EIA’s monthly energy data. For the full range of EIA's CO2 emissions products, see EIA’s Environment analysis.