Over the next two years, EIA's "Short-Term Energy Outlook" projects growth in U.S. consumption of ethane in the petrochemical industry will exceed increases in consumption of all other petroleum and liquid products combined. EIA also projects ethane exports will continue increasing as ethane is exported both by pipeline to Canada and by tankers to more distant destinations.
As U.S. natural gas production has increased, the amount of ethane contained in raw natural gas production streams has exceeded domestic demand or the ability to export it abroad. This situation has led producers to leave some of the ethane in the natural gas stream and to sell it as natural gas, rather than recover and market ethane as a separate product.
Nonetheless, ethane is increasingly being recovered from the natural gas stream, and U.S. ethane consumption is increasing as existing ethylene crackers have expanded and new plants have begun operating. In addition, expanding pipeline networks and two new ethane export terminals have allowed U.S. ethane exports to increase.
In 2017, construction was completed on the first three of a series of new ethylene crackers, all on the Texas Gulf Coast. These crackers expanded the capacity to consume ethane in the U.S. by 210,000 barrels per day (b/d), and EIA expects ethylene plant capacity to continue to expand. Six ethylene crackers, collectively capable of consuming 380,000 b/d of ethane, are planned to be completed by the end of 2019. EIA expects annual U.S. ethane consumption to grow from an estimated 1.2 million b/d in 2017 to 1.4 million b/d in 2018 and 1.6 million b/d in 2019 as these new plants and related infrastructure ramp up operations.
EIA also projects continued growth in ethane exports, with average annual exports increasing from 180,000 b/d in 2017 to 290,000 b/d in 2018 and 310,000 b/d in 2019.
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