U.S. crude oil production will increase more by the end of the decade than the government estimated last year, according to the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest Annual Energy Outlook. The EIA announced today oil production will increase from 6.5 MMbbl/d in 2012 to 9.6 MMbbl/d in 2019 — an estimate that is 22% higher than that published in last year’s Annual Energy Outlook. The revised growth estimate is attributed to an increase in production from tight oil formations. In the EIA’s reference case, tight oil production increases from 35% of all crude oil production in 2012 to 51% in 2021. EIA forecasts that imported oil will decline as a share of all U.S. consumption from 40% in 2012 to 25% in 2016, though that number will tick back up to 32% by 2040 (tight oil production is expected to decline beginning in 2022).
The administration also revised downward last year’s estimate of energy-related CO2 emissions in 2040 by 1.6%, though there was a slight increase in its estimate for carbon intensity of the economy (0.6%).